For the purpose of forecasting demand, methods identified by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) were used to the extent possible. ICAO provides three basic methods of forecasting, namely Trend Projections (based on historical growth), Econometric Relationship Modelling (based on correlation with GDP of the catchments area) and Market and Industry Survey (based on the industry and market survey).

Source: CRISIL Analysis (Base Data:AAI) (2007 are actual numbers)

The above forecast shows that the Ahmedabad will continue to have the major share of the air traffic on the State given its higher growth rate. Vadodara will be a distant second. The balance key airports will continue to have low traffic numbers and low overall market share

 International Passenger Traffic

International passenger traffic at Ahmedabad has grown at a CAGR of 29% in the last five years from 2002-03 to 2007-08. There was a drop in growth in 2006-07 but the recovery has been robust in 2007-08 with increased direct flights. However, the current year (2008-09) may see a slump. However, given the huge investments planned, introduction of many new international flights, easing of oil prices and the new international terminal with apron will become available in 2009. Considering these, a conservative, lower than historical growth rate of 25% has been adopted for the period of 2007-15 while 15% has been adopted for period beyond 2015. The projections are as under.

Source: CRISIL analysis